XXV Edition

1-2 December 2016"

When Bubble Meets Bubble: Contagion in Oecd Countries

Gomez-Gonzalez Jose, Central Bank of Colombia
Gamboa-Arbelaez Juliana, Central Bank of Colombia
Hirs-Garzón Jorge, Central Bank of Colombia
Pinchao-Rosero Andrés, Central Bank of Colombia

We study the existence and international migration of housing market bubbles, using quarterly information of twenty OECD countries for the period comprised between 1970 and 2015. We find that housing bubbles are present in all the countries included in our sample. Multiple bubbles are found in all but two of those countries. We find ten episodes of migration. All of them had origin in the US housing bubble preceding the subprime crisis. Most migrations were to European countries. Notably, the Spanish housing bubble was not a direct consequence of the US housing bubble. Its origin must be found in other causes.

Area: Asset Pricing and Derivatives

Keywords: Housing bubbles; International migration of bubbles; Recursive right-tailed unit root tests.

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